Analysts: Haniyeh's assassination is the most dangerous in decades | Politics
Two political analysts said that the assassination of the head of the political bureau of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), the martyr Ismail Haniyeh, is the most dangerous in decades, and one of them ruled out the possibility of Israel launching a preemptive strike against Iran.
In this context, Dr. Hassan Ayoub, Professor of Political Science at An-Najah University in Palestine, described the assassination of Haniyeh as the most dangerous political assassination carried out by Israel in decades, as it concerns the head of one of the largest political movements in Palestine and after it has been engaged in a battle that has been ongoing for 10 months.
Ayyoub pointed out – during his analysis for Al Jazeera – that the assassination could constitute a kind of political, diplomatic and media compensation for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to exploit him internally, invest him politically and attempt to restore the prestige of deterrence.
He stressed that the assassination also poses a direct threat to Israel's handling of the Palestinian issue, as Netanyahu has a historical commitment to crush all symbols of the Palestinian cause.
He pointed out that the assassination operation aims to break Hamas's negotiating strength during the current war, as Israel is not accustomed to negotiations between Palestinian and Arab parties with such organizational and political cohesion.
Netanyahu's goals
In turn, the expert in Israeli affairs, Dr. Muhannad Mustafa, said that Netanyahu achieved goals from the assassination of Haniyeh, as he succeeded in disrupting the ceasefire talks in Gaza, and he confirmed that the issue of Israeli prisoners is not at the top of his priorities.
The second goal, according to Mustafa, is related to Netanyahu's desire to prolong the war on the Gaza Strip in light of the increasing internal, regional and international pressures, noting that the assassination gave the former political points on the Israeli street.
He pointed out that Israeli society is living in a state of euphoria and pride after the assassination of Haniyeh, but he said that it “will pay the price if Israel enters a long state of emergency that severely affects the Israeli economy.”
Biden's statements
Regarding US President Joe Biden’s statements about the assassination of Haniyeh and that it is not helpful for a ceasefire in Gaza, the Palestinian academic said that there is an American moral defect because what happened is “a blatant violation of international law and an attack on the sovereignty of a state, and a blatant attempt to drag the region into a large-scale war, and the continuation of the American position biased towards Israel.”
He pointed out that Washington does not have the desire or will to pressure Israel in light of the approaching US presidential elections, while the latter is working with a brinkmanship policy to drag everyone into a regional war.
He stressed that Washington is not interested in a regional war and expanding the conflict, but is interested in Israel emerging from the confrontation with tangible achievements to arrange a regional situation that serves its interests while preserving Israel's status.
For his part, the expert on Israeli affairs said that the Biden administration has done nothing to prevent the idea of assassinations or impose a ceasefire on Israel, adding that the latter is pushing towards a regional war, while the United States is trying to save Israel.
Iran's response
On the other hand, Iran appears to be in a difficult situation to assess, according to Ayoub, especially if it does not respond to the extent of the breach and the violation of its national dignity and security. Thus, Tel Aviv would have subjugated Tehran, adding that the same applies to Hezbollah and its expected response to the assassination of its military leader, Fouad Shukr.
He expected that the response would come in light of the lack of options for support fronts, as Israel is dealing with the southern suburb of Beirut and the port of Hodeidah in Yemen as if they were the areas of Rafah, Beit Hanoun and Al-Bureij in the Gaza Strip, ruling out reaching a solution even after the response of the “Axis of Resistance.”
In a related context, Mustafa said that Israel is busy building an umbrella and a defensive system around it, as happened in the Iranian attack last April, ruling out the possibility of it launching a preemptive operation against Iran, as it is useless.