Zvi Bar'el, a writer for Haaretz, said that Hezbollah, Israel and Iran are facing a war dilemma, and the attempt to balance deterrence, revenge and settling scores could lead to a comprehensive war.
He added that in addition to Iran taking into account its economic and political safety, it must also be careful not to harm its allies in the region with its response.
The United States, which has promised to protect Israel, may respond to Tehran by targeting pro-Iranian Iraqi factions in Iraq, which could weaken Iranian influence in the country in the long term and increase internal tensions.
The war may also push Hezbollah to engage in fighting, which could lead to major destruction in Lebanon and escalate the regional conflict, negatively impact Lebanese society, and increase its economic and political suffering.
As for the Houthis in Yemen, any Iranian attack could prompt responses from the Saudi-led coalition, which would increase the suffering of the Yemeni people and further complicate the humanitarian crisis.
The writer says that Iran must also take into account the reaction of the surrounding Arab countries, as a war of this type and size might make them feel threatened, which could harm relations and reduce the chances of cooperation in the future, contrary to the goal of the new Iranian President, Masoud Pezeshkian.
War of insults
One of Iran's goals in the war is to avenge its humiliation and respond to the assassinations that – in the words of Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant – “restored Israel's honor and raised its head.
According to the writer's assessment, Israel's main goal in assassinating the head of the political bureau of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), Ismail Haniyeh, was to respond to the great insult that Israel suffered as a result of the Iranian attack last April.
A Telegraph report revealed plans to assassinate Haniyeh at the funeral of former President Ebrahim Raisi, and the two events – the funeral and the inauguration of the Iranian president – are both national occasions, indicating an Israeli desire for the assassination to take place on an important day for Iran.
According to the writer, it is difficult to predict the standards that govern the war of insults or the extent of the expected reactions, because when feelings of honor and humiliation are involved in politics, there is not much room for logic.
From Israel's side, Gaza and the prisoner exchange deal in the war of insults – according to the writer – become secondary matters compared to the major war with Iran.