Did the French Left Get It Right in Choosing Its Prime Ministerial Candidate?

Paris- After a long wait, the New Popular Front has unveiled its candidate for prime minister of France, Lucie Castets, to begin presenting herself and her capabilities for the position of prime minister during the Olympics and the summer break when political discourse is rare.

While Paris City Council Finance Director Castets has begun a series of media interviews and field trips to put her name forward on the political scene, President Emmanuel Macron – who has the constitutional power to appoint the prime minister – has not commented on the Front's choice of its candidate and has not shown any intention to appoint her yet.

The leftist coalition, which has 193 deputies, represents the largest political force in the National Assembly (parliament) after the results of the early legislative elections called by Macron, but it remains far from the 289 seats needed to guarantee an absolute majority.

Poor alternative

Castets, 37, who is not well known to the general public, has managed to bring together the various groups of the left-wing bloc to agree on her profile, especially the Socialist Party and France Insoumise, which have been locked in internal disputes since the second round of elections.

Regarding the importance of this agreement, political analyst Yves Sentomère sees it as a “wise choice” for several reasons. On the one hand, it is clear that Castets has obtained the collective support of left-wing parties, something that seemed almost impossible to achieve before.

On the other hand, because she has a sufficient technocratic and political personality in her commitments to civil society, and she is serious and has a certain talent for expression, but it is too early to judge the charisma she has in the long term, according to the political analyst.

But he pointed out – in an interview with Al Jazeera Net – that the chance of this candidate assuming the position is “very weak” and that it is difficult to impose her on Macron from a constitutional standpoint or from the point of view of the mathematical majority in parliament.

For her part, Virginie Martin, professor of political science and sociology at Kedge Business School, believes that the left-wing coalition was not clear about choosing a prime minister from the beginning, unlike the presidential camp through the resigned Prime Minister Gabriel Attal or Jordan Bardella, representing the far right.

She believes that Castets' choice was contingent on the acceptance of the “France Insoumise” party, which still significantly dominates the new Popular Front parties.

The academic professor told Al Jazeera Net that the Front could have chosen other figures to represent it, including former Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve, who can create good alliances, or politician Karim Bouamrane, who is distinguished by an exceptional combination as he is a businessman and a member of the Socialist Party.

Although Castets' success in penetrating a somewhat saturated political space is a challenge, especially since she is a figure who was not known to the French people, her training at the elite institution “Ecole Nationale d'Administration” has drawn much criticism and could be a problem for a left-wing activist.

If she becomes prime minister, she will have to convince MPs from all parties to vote or abstain on legislative proposals at a time when the left finds itself in a minority in parliament.

Macron's position

While the pressures of the new Popular Front continue to establish itself as a fait accompli for Macron and to break through the barrier of ignorance to reach the “Matignon” Palace, where the government is based, the head of state is still looking for alternative plans to prevent the arrival of this coalition's candidate for the vacant position of prime minister.

In this regard, the researcher does not rule out that Macron will continue to evade until the end of the Olympic Games on September 8, despite all the pressure exerted by the left to form a government and the political chaos the country is experiencing. She adds that all parties do not agree on anything, such as nuclear energy, taxes, Europe, the migrant file, the war in Ukraine or in the Gaza Strip.

“I agree with Macron this time that the French voted for the left-wing alliance only to avoid the rise of the far right. Today, he does not talk about the candidate of this alliance, and even ignores her, because he is known for this political style, but also because Lucy is not a political figure to be reckoned with,” she continued.

As for Centomere, he believes that Macron is “playing” – as he has done for years – with his political game because he believes that accepting this candidate would be a blessing for the Front’s vision, while he still wants to name a moderate right-wing prime minister so that he can hold out for a year until new elections are called.

The political analyst blamed the Front parties for the situation because they took a long time to reach an agreement on a single name for their candidate. He believes that the chances of forming a government from this alliance have diminished further and caused disappointment among the sympathizers who voted for them in the early legislative elections.

double edged sword

Castets announced that she is gay, married to a woman and the mother of a two-and-a-half-year-old child in an interview with Paris Match magazine last Tuesday. If appointed the next prime minister, she would become the second openly gay person to hold the post after Attal.

Regarding her statements, which received mixed opinions among the French, Centomere described them as a “double-edged sword,” explaining that French society may see her boldness as a problem, but it may also turn into an advantage, in addition to the fact that Attal and former Paris Mayor Bertrand Delanoë were openly gay, in addition to the news circulating about “Macron's sexual orientation.”

Professor Martin was very critical of Castets, noting that the French “don't care about her personal life as much as her competence, and although her CV is good in terms of high degrees, her professional career is considered very ordinary.” However, she said, “Since the scandalous sex scenes we saw at the Olympic opening ceremony, it seems that discussing this issue in the media has unfortunately become acceptable.”

According to Martin, Castets does not talk about her skills or show off her political abilities. She does not tell them, for example, her vision for the war in Ukraine, nor does she explain to them the ins and outs of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. She also does not understand anything and has no international contact with the American Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and her Republican rival Donald Trump. She does not even talk about domestic issues such as debt or how to improve France’s devastated budget.

Centomir believes that the current political situation cannot remain as it is for long, even without an absolute state of emergency in the country and amid the Olympic Games and summer vacation, suggesting that a new government could be formed within a few days or weeks, or that the head of state could play extra time and postpone the matter until mid-September.