an active housing market in 2018

20-12-2018

The old housing market analyzed by notaries shows a very active year in terms of sales volumes. Prices are still rising but are stabilizing in some regions. Housing prices in Bordeaux are showing a very strong increase.

The housing market was active in 2018. According to figures published on December 13 by the notaries of France*, the volume of sales reached 956,000 (Oct. 2017-Sept. 2018), an increase of +0.8% compared to the same period of the previous year. But while activity is growing in the provinces (+1.5%), it is contracting in Ile-de-France (-1.9%).
* Source: press kit of December 13, 2018, BIEN database

Rising prices

Regarding prices, they have increased more for apartments: by +3.4% in one year (from September 2017 to September 2018). But the increase is more pronounced in the Paris region (+4.2%) than in the provinces (+2.6%). For houses, the increase is more limited: it is estimated at +2.6% for the whole of France, but unlike apartments, prices have increased more in the provinces (+2.7%) than in the Paris region (+2.0%).
The projection of prices based on pre-contracts suggests a moderation in the increase for apartment prices (+0.7% in 3 months) and a very slight decrease for houses (-0.2% in 3 months).

In the province

The projection of prices based on pre-contracts allows us to anticipate, for apartments, a stabilization (+0.1% in 3 months) and, for houses, a very slight decline (-0.2%). Prices are naturally very contrasting from one city to another; Here are the prices of the 10 most expensive cities for houses and for apartments.
The increase in apartment prices in Bordeaux is spectacular, with an increase of 18.6%. It is also very strong in Lyon (+9.2%) and, to a lesser extent, in Rennes (+6.7%). Conversely, some cities are showing price drops. This is the case in Grenoble (-3.9%) and also in Saint-Étienne (-2.1%) where prices are particularly low (€860 per m2).
For old houses, the increases are more homogeneous. Four cities see their prices increase by more than 5%. This is the case for Bordeaux (+7.3%), Rennes (+6.0%), but also Reims (+5.3%) and Lyon (+5.1%).

Source : Real estate database of French notaries. Median sale price of urban areas (city center + suburbs).

In Ile-de-France

In the Paris region, the volume of sales of existing homes fell slightly (-2% annual variation) in the 3rd quarter of 2018, but remained at a high level with 175,430 annual sales. Prices are still on an upward trend since they increased by +3.5% in one year in the 3rd quarter of 2018.
Apartment prices have reached new records with an average price per m2 of €5,970 (+4.2% in one year) and should reach €6,050 in the 4th quarter.
As for old houses, the level of activity is stabilizing at a high level (-1%) with 55,700 annual sales. The average price in the 3rd quarter of 2018 for a house in the Ile-de-France region is €312,800, a price that has increased by +2.0% in one year. The Parisian market is characterized by a slowdown in volumes (-3%) in one year and a continued increase in prices (+6.2%) in one year to €9,500 per m2.

Little crown

In the inner suburbs, activity remains at a high level (-2%), with Seine-Saint-Denis recording a record number of apartment sales (+9%), contrasting with that of Hauts-de-Seine (-7%).
The housing market is more dynamic (+6%) but also contrasting between Hauts de Seine (-1%) and Seine-Saint-Denis (+13%).
According to leading indicators, prices of old apartments in the 4th quarter of 2018 should increase in the inner suburbs by +6.1%, particularly in Seine Saint-Denis (+8.2%). House prices should also increase by more than 6% in the inner suburbs (+6.6%).

Great crown

In the outer suburbs, the apartment market is growing (+2% activity), with activity being supported by Yvelines (+11%) while Essonne is falling (-4%). For houses, the market is stable (+1%), particularly in Val d'Oise (0%) and is decreasing slightly in Yvelines (-3%).
Notaries estimate that apartment prices should change little in the outer suburbs (+2.8%) in one year. Those of old houses should stagnate (+2.3% in one year). The most stable department is Seine et Marne (+0.6%) and the most dynamic is Yvelines (+3.8%).
The average price of a house in the inner suburbs is €379,300 and that of an apartment is €4,750 per m2. In the outer suburbs; is €284,700 and the price of an apartment is €3,040 per m2.