Mixed trend continues in markets ahead of data

Investors remain cautious in global markets ahead of this week's employment data from the US.

While it is priced in that the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) tight monetary policy stance will begin to ease as of this month, the magnitude of the steps to be taken by the end of the year remains uncertain.

Analysts stated that the data in the employment report to be announced on Friday could provide more information about the course of the US economy, and that the data in question could also concretize the Fed's road map for the upcoming period.

While it is almost certain in money market pricing that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates by 100 basis points by the end of the year, predictions that a 50 basis point rate cut will be made at the meetings in November or December remain strong.

BONDS, DOLLARS, GOLD, OIL

While no transactions took place in the US stock markets yesterday due to the holiday, today the US 10-year bond interest is at 3.92 percent and the dollar index is at 101.8.

The ounce price of gold is trading at $2,494, 0.2 percent below the previous close, while the barrel price of Brent oil is trading at $77.1, down 0.1 percent.

Index futures contracts in the US started the new day with a negative trend.

CONCERNS CONTINUE IN EUROPE

European stock markets had a mixed trend yesterday, while concerns about economic activity across the region remain.

Analysts noted that it is almost certain that the European Central Bank (ECB) will make two more interest rate cuts this year, and that signals from macroeconomic data could bring the possibility of a third interest rate cut to the table.

Eurozone banks must take geopolitical risks into account when deciding how much capital to hold and where to do business, ECB member Claudia Buch said in a speech.

According to data released yesterday, the manufacturing industry PMI in Germany, which was 43.2 points in July, fell to 42.4 points in August, falling to its lowest level in the last five months.

In the Eurozone, the manufacturing PMI, which was at 45.8 in July, remained unchanged in August. Thus, the PMI remained below the 50-point level indicating growth in activities.

Meanwhile, German carmaker Volkswagen has warned that it may close factories in Germany for the first time as part of austerity and cost-cutting measures.

In a statement made by the German company after the last meeting of the board of directors, it was stated that the brands within Volkswagen AG needed to be comprehensively restructured.

In Spain, the number of tourists visiting between January and July was 53 million 370 thousand, while tourism revenue broke a record by exceeding 71 billion Euros.

Yesterday, the DAX 40 index in Germany gained 0.13 percent and the CAC 40 index in France gained 0.20 percent, while the FTSE MIB index in Italy and the FTSE 100 index in England fell 0.15 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe also started the new day with a mixed course.

NEGATIVE TREND IN ASIA

While a negative trend stood out on the Asian side, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in South Korea recorded the slowest increase on an annual basis since March 2021.

According to data released today, CPI in South Korea increased by 0.4 percent on a monthly basis, just above expectations, while it increased by 2 percent on an annual basis, in line with forecasts.

On the corporate side, it was reported that Intel, one of the world's largest chip manufacturers from the USA, will establish a research and development center in the semiconductor field in Japan.

The dollar/yen parity, on the other hand, was at 146.5, 0.3 percent below the previous close, following a four-day series of increases, while pricing that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will make its next interest rate hike in January has begun to strengthen.

Close to the close, Japan's Nikkei 225 index fell 0.2 percent, South Korea's Kospi index fell 0.4 percent, China's Shanghai composite index fell 0.4 percent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 0.5 percent. On the other hand, India's Sensex index closed yesterday at a record level of 82,559.84 points, up 0.31 percent.

DOMESTIC MARKETS

While the BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul, which followed a buying-heavy trend yesterday, completed the day with a 2.82 percent increase compared to the previous close at 10,110.18 points, today all eyes turned to the August inflation data.

Economists participating in the AA Finance Inflation Expectations Survey estimate that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.64 percent in August.

According to economists' average August inflation expectations, annual inflation, which was 61.78 percent the previous month, is expected to decrease to 52.20 percent.

On the other hand, economists' inflation expectation for the end of 2024 was 42.84 percent in August.

While the USD/TRY lost 0.6 percent of its value yesterday and closed at 33.882, it is being traded at 33.9390 today, 0.2 percent above the previous close, at the opening of the interbank market.

Analysts stated that today, domestic inflation and foreign exchange assets of firms outside the financial sector, and US manufacturing industry PMI data will be followed abroad, and noted that technically, the 10,200 and 10,300 levels in the BIST 100 index are resistance, while the 10,000 and 9,900 points are support.

Here are the data to follow in the markets today:

10.00 Türkiye, August Consumer Price Index (CPI)

10.00 Türkiye, August Domestic Producer Price Index (D-PPI)

14.30 Türkiye, June, foreign exchange assets of non-financial sector firms

16.45 US August manufacturing PMI

17.00 US, August ISM manufacturing PMI

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