How do Russian circles see the future of the region after the assassination of Nasrallah? | policy
Al Jazeera Net correspondents
Moscow In light of Russia’s condemnation of Israel’s assassination of the Secretary-General of the Lebanese Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, and holding it fully responsible for any subsequent consequences, Russian observers believe that the possibility of the outbreak of a wide and comprehensive war in the region has become greater, considering that the ball is in Iran’s court to respond to what they described as “ “Israeli crossing of red lines.”
The Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement that it “strongly condemns another political murder committed by Israel,” and that “this violent act is fraught with major dire consequences for Lebanon and the entire Middle East. The Israeli side could not help but be aware of this danger, but it took a similar step by killing Lebanese citizens.” “This will inevitably lead to a new wave of violence.”
The Foreign Ministry statement continued, “We once again urge Israel to cease hostilities immediately, as this would stop the bloodshed and create the conditions for a political and diplomatic settlement.”
With different and disparate approaches and analyses, the Russian media followed the developments of events related to the situation in the region in general, and the assassination of the Secretary-General of Hezbollah in particular, and the expected scenarios.
According to Russian and Lebanese sources, there have been permanent channels of communication between Moscow and Hezbollah for a long time, which were further strengthened during the events in Syria, where the military forces of both parties found themselves confronting what they call “takfiri forces.”
The great interest of Russian observers in the dramatic developments in Lebanon comes against the backdrop of the intertwined relations between Moscow and the countries of the region and its vitality for Russia in the political, military, economic and other dimensions, in which the Kremlin’s interest has increased in light of the deterioration of relations with the Western system due to the war on Ukraine.
Towards the unknown
Arab affairs expert Andrei Ontikov says that Tel Aviv, by assassinating the leader of Hezbollah, has turned Lebanon into the main arena of the current conflict in the region, with the repercussions that will follow that could lead to the situation getting out of control.
Ontikov added, in an interview with Al Jazeera Net, that the indicators lead to an increase in the possibility of a comprehensive war in the region in light of the Israeli practices that no longer adhere to any red lines or rules of engagement, and the unlimited support that the Hebrew state receives from the American administration and its Western allies.
The speaker explains that the increase in the level of “Israeli brutality” would not have happened if the Hebrew state had not begun to sense an existential threat to it, of which Hezbollah constitutes one of its most important pillars.
According to his opinion, the assassination of Nasrallah ended all bets on a political solution or understandings that would at least allow agreement on a truce, even if temporary, or return the situation to what it was before the seventh of last October, which greatly strengthens the hypothesis of a war. Comprehensive in the region and the involvement of new elements in it.
He continues that the talk now is about the assassination of a prominent figure in the Middle East who constitutes the backbone of the anti-Israel forces in the region, and that the question now is about the fate and future of these forces if they do not provide a response commensurate with the operation and give Hezbollah and its allies the initiative back, especially in light of the challenges facing them. The region faces the frequent Israeli talk about “rearranging” it.
Ontikov suggested that the initial response would be from the “most extreme party” within this alliance, which is the Ansar Allah group (the Houthis), which has a wider margin of movement and greater missile capabilities, and at the same time is not bound by limited margins imposed by political realities, as is the case in Iraq, according to Saying it.
In the Iranian stadium
In turn, Director of the Center for Political Predictions, Denis Karkudinov, ruled out that the successive assassinations of Hezbollah leaders would lead to the disruption of the party’s military capabilities, citing the continuation of the bombing of Israeli territory, albeit at a lesser pace.
According to him, the fact that immediately after the attack on Beirut there was a retaliatory barrage from Hezbollah indicates that some orders are still being issued regardless of whether the high command is paralyzed or not.
According to him, what happened was a major blow to Hezbollah, but it does not destroy the group itself, nor does it seriously affect its ability to later carry out combat operations.
In parallel, the speaker believes that the Iranian leadership is facing a sensitive and important issue, and that the ball is in its court, as it appears to be showing extreme caution towards its allies, does not want to go towards further escalation, and is trying to avoid a major war and large-scale retaliatory strikes on its territory from Israel.
In his opinion, if Iran remains in the position of the party that does not take strong military action against Israel in the current situation, this will be a great harm to its reputation as a country that presents itself as the main enemy of Israel, but does not do what is necessary to protect its main ally in the region.