Between Milwaukee and Chicago: An Analytical Reading of the Republican and Democratic Party Conventions | Politics

The Republican and Democratic parties have dominated the American political scene and played a pivotal role in shaping the political agenda at both the domestic and foreign levels since the birth of this republic. The adoption of the two-party system, which was later produced by political practice and its necessities, was preceded by an important matter that played the greatest role in the continuation of the American experience and its stability to this day, which is the adoption of the Constitution on September 17, 1787, and then the beginning of work according to it on March 4, 1789.

The US Constitution remained in effect for a period estimated at more than two centuries. Its drafters succeeded in establishing the principle of separation of powers (executive, legislative, and judicial) and balancing them in a way that serves to protect the interests of majority rule without harming the rights of minorities, and working to establish freedom and equality, and maintaining the constitutional distance regarding the powers of the federal government and state governments.

Philosophy of the two parties

The two major parties have different, sometimes contradictory, philosophies and outlooks on governance. The fundamentals that separate the two parties' visions are their disagreement on many issues, including the role of the federal government, individual freedoms, and social responsibility.

The Democratic Party has a pro-worker and pro-farmer line, and advocates social equality and economic justice. Democrats believe in a more active role for the federal government in addressing social and economic inequalities, and are therefore more supportive of social welfare programs, universal health care, and environmental issues.

While the Republican philosophy focuses on the importance of having a smaller federal government, with no regulatory restrictions on the business sector, as well as imposing lower taxes on private sector companies, and working to provide tax exemptions for them to enable them to contribute positively to supporting the economy and creating more job opportunities.

Perhaps the difference in perceptions and governing philosophy between the two parties is what led some to say that the Democrats represent the middle class and the poor classes of employees and workers, in which immigrants, blacks, and other minorities represent the basic segment, while others see the Republican Party as the party of the wealthy businessmen and landowners, the majority of whom are white.

Accordingly, by analyzing and reading the agenda of the two general conferences of the Republican and Democratic parties – which were recently held as part of the 2024 electoral entitlement – we can say that it is related to taking into account the aforementioned contexts in terms of the difference in the philosophy and vision of governance for each party and the social base on which it is based.

Through this article, we try to answer several questions, including: What are the main ideas that were presented in the Republican and Democratic party conferences and the fundamental differences between them? What are the chances of what was presented in the conferences among the American voter, especially with regard to domestic policy issues? Is there any kind of difference in the level of presentation and mechanisms regarding foreign policy issues? To what extent does the fever of internal conflict between the two parties affect the ability of the winner to adopt an active or withdrawn foreign policy? What is the position of the Middle East and its issues on the foreign agenda of the two parties?

A look from inside the conference

The Republican National Convention will be held from July 15 to July 18 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, a swing state that could play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the upcoming election.

The conference was held amid extremely critical political and security circumstances for the party and its supporters, following the failed assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania on July 13, as he prepared to become the official Republican Party nominee.

While the Democratic Party conference was held under exceptional circumstances, most notably President Joe Biden’s resignation from leading his presidential campaign due to a set of factors, most notably his declining popularity as a result of his unconditional support for Netanyahu’s far-right government, which resulted in the killing of more than forty thousand people since October 7 in the Gaza Strip.

In all the opinion polls conducted, his popularity has declined among a segment of young voters, who constitute a significant percentage of the electoral bloc, in addition to the fact that the public’s view of his ability to carry out the burdens of the presidency for a second term was linked to his lackluster performance in the first debate with Donald Trump, in which his ability to concentrate was weak due to his advanced age.

Chicago, Illinois, was chosen to host the conference, which ran from August 19-22. The city was chosen as one of the Midwest cities, which is considered one of the crucial Democratic strongholds, and is traditionally considered part of the so-called “Blue Wall,” which was instrumental in the victory of President Biden and his Vice President Kamala Harris in 2020, and the success of the Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections.

One of the most prominent issues that the Republican Party conference focused on was the border issue and the influx of refugees and illegal immigrants across the southern border, which is being used as an electoral card to win votes from voters in border states. Trump seeks to promote the idea that these crossing immigrants pose a security threat to American citizens and their jobs.

The issue of insecurity and the rise in violence, as perceived by Republican political propaganda, also received a lot of coverage, and an attempt to present Trump as a savior who has the ability to extend the authority of the law, which he personally stands at the top of the list of violators and disrespecters of, given his position on the attack on the Congress building and the attempt to disrupt the approval of the results of the presidential and parliamentary elections in 2020, according to many.

In the same vein, the conference tried to discuss the economic challenges facing the American voter and the promise to solve them, although many observers believe that Trump's mismanagement of the Corona pandemic crisis resulted in many difficulties facing the American economy, most notably the issue of inflation.

In contrast, the most prominent topics discussed at the Democratic Party conference varied between protecting Social Security, reducing health care costs, reducing taxes, and demanding protection of women’s reproductive rights in terms of regulation and abortion, the latter of which has become the focus of women’s attention in most American states, with some exceptions in some southern states, since the Roe v. Wade law was overturned by the Supreme Court.

The conference also tried to reassure voters about the economic dilemma, through Kamala Harris’ promise to provide financial support to families and help those wishing to obtain residential homes for the first time with an amount of up to $25,000, but the dilemma remains without specifying practical means that would enable the candidate, if she wins, to provide the necessary money to implement this promise.

Perhaps the most notable failure faced by the Democrats was their failure in the test of democracy, when they allowed two women from the families of detainees held by Hamas to address the conference, while the Palestinians were prevented from having the same opportunity to address the audience and express the human and moral suffering facing many in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.

There are fundamental differences between the two parties’ proposals. The proposal presented by the Republicans is considered closely related to the social segments mentioned earlier. The noteworthy observation is that the nature of the discourse issued from the corridors of the Milwaukee conference was unable to go beyond the circle of the Republican support bloc. As is known, the most important determinant of any candidate’s victory is his ability to address other segments that fall outside his traditional circle of influence. This did not happen given the nature of the populist discourse adopted by the party’s candidate, Donald Trump, and his deputy, J.D. Vance. The form of the proposal presented did not differ much from the 2016 speech.

It is noticeable that hate speech and cultural incitement prevail at the expense of addressing the pressing economic issues facing the American voter. The use of the tactic of investing in societal divisions and personally attacking opponents is no longer a popular commodity among a large segment of independent voters, who are responsible for tipping the scales of one candidate over another, especially in the swing states that include Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Pennsylvania. Although the most important gains that emerged from the Republican Party General Convention were the unity of all party currents and their alignment behind Trump.

On the other hand, the Democratic Party benefited from President Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race and pushed forward Kamala Harris, 59 years old, who is almost two decades younger than Trump, so that the age difference would be a positive point in favor of the Democrats after she had been an opponent to them, and thus old age and inability became a point directed against Trump.

It is noteworthy that the Democratic Conference succeeded, through its optimistic speech that focused on addressing the future rather than the past, in encouraging the youth segment to return again to the circle of action and political spotlight, which is a great advantage if it is invested correctly, by focusing on the issues of climate change and freedoms.

In a CIRCLE survey of young people ahead of the 2024 presidential election, which highlighted key trends in young people’s political views and engagement, the survey found that 57% of young people ages 18 to 34 said they were “very likely” to vote in 2024, and another 15% said they were “somewhat likely” to vote.

Among the young people surveyed who are most likely to vote, 51% support Democratic candidate Harris, while 30% support Republican candidate Trump. Perhaps most striking is that the most important issues on their minds are the economy, climate change, and gun control, which are among the most important pillars of the Democratic election campaign that was launched from within the party’s general convention, despite the convictions of many voters that they trust the Republicans’ ability to manage the economy more than the Democrats.

Limited options

On foreign policy, both parties share common positions, especially those related to the commitment to support Israel and to maintaining its complete security. This can be understood in the context of the great influence that the Zionist lobby exercises over the candidates, and cornering them into a corner of no choice when it comes to Israel. Another issue is the focus on China as a real strategic competitor.

In this context, you can review our article entitled: “Haniyeh’s Assassination in Tehran and the Attack on the Golan: America’s Scenarios for Confronting Escalation,” as well as our other article entitled: “Between Biden and Trump: The US Elections and Their Impact on the Middle East.”

The two recent conferences have proven that the Middle East is no longer an urgent priority for Washington. Therefore, decision-makers and decision-makers in the region must look for alternatives and strategic options that are based primarily on the intrinsic capabilities of the countries of the region, including human capital, and benefit from the model of the rise of the Democratic Party candidate who came from the lowest level of the social ladder (an Indian mother and a Jamaican father), to become very close to leading the largest country in the world. The region has a greater opportunity than others, provided that the door is opened to everyone without discrimination, and that each person is given confidence in his ability to create a better tomorrow for himself and his nation.

Perhaps the most notable difference in foreign policy issues appears in the Ukrainian file and the European-American partnership, as the Republicans are more inward-looking, compared to the Democrats, who appear more open and interactive in supporting Ukraine and maintaining good relations with NATO.

Conclusion

Following what happened at the Republican and Democratic party conferences, and taking into account the results of public opinion polls and the interview conducted by CNN anchor Dana Bash with the Democratic candidates on Thursday afternoon, I say that the chances of Democratic candidate Kamala Harris to be the next president of America are greater than before (the Biden era).

But this depends on several factors, the most important of which is her ability to expand the base of her political alliances and reach the segment of independent voters in swing states, especially Arabs and Muslims in Michigan, whose tense relationship with them may have caused her to lose this important state on the way to the White House, taking into account the ability of Tim Walz, the candidate for vice president, to reach white voters, who are Kamala Harris’s weak point and Trump’s point of superiority.

In addition to continuing to make a successful appearance in the media, especially the upcoming debate, while showing the necessary seriousness in dealing with securing America's southern border, and presenting clear policies to convince voters, not presenting slogans or general lines. On the other hand, Trump's chances of winning remain if he focuses on economic issues and moves away from the personal approach in his speech to voters, but Kamala Harris's chances remain the strongest according to current data.

The last thing is that the Middle East is required to determine its options, as was discussed in previous articles, in a world that no longer believes in or recognizes anyone but the strong who possess the tools of power, the most important of which is the possession of energy resources and a human being capable of creativity and innovation.

The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera Network.

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