While global markets are mixed due to ongoing concerns about the US economy, the Inflation Report presentation to be made by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) Governor Fatih Karahan has become the focus of investors in the country.
The interest rate messages that Karahan will give in the 3rd Inflation Report of the year to be announced by the CBRT will be closely followed by the market.
In global markets, after the historic selling pressure seen on Sunday, although a recovery trend was seen in the markets on Tuesday and Wednesday, the risk perception in global markets continues.
Analysts noted that it may be too early to say that selling pressure in the markets is over.
While the earnings season caused stock and sector-based volatility to remain high, the failure of company balance sheets to meet expectations reduced risk appetite in global markets.
Analysts said that the weak balance sheets of companies, added to the recession concerns, triggered concerns in the markets.
Analysts recalled that the data in the employment report released last week in the US increased concerns about a recession, and noted that the weekly unemployment benefit applications data to be released in the country today could provide more evidence about the labor market in the country and could be decisive on the direction of the markets.
On the other hand, the probability of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) reducing the policy rate by 50 basis points has exceeded 70 percent in pricing in money markets.
BONDS, DOLLARS, GOLD, OIL
US 10-year bond yield drops 4 basis points to 3.91
The dollar index decreased by 0.1 percent to 103, the ounce price of gold increased by 0.5 percent to 2,395 dollars, and the barrel price of Brent oil decreased by 0.2 percent to 78.1 dollars.
NEGATIVE TREND IN THE USA
The New York Stock Exchange closed lower yesterday after demand for the $42 billion annual bond auction in the United States fell short of expectations.
Analysts said that weak demand in the bond auction increased investors' anxiety, and that the decline in the stock market revealed the fragility of the recovery following the historic selling wave.
Meanwhile, Disney shares fell 4.5 percent after the company's financial results beat expectations but operating income at its parks unit declined, as investors' balance sheets returned to focus.
Amgen shares fell 5 percent after the company's earnings missed expectations. Super Micro Computer shares fell 20.1 percent after the company's earnings fell short of expectations.
Airbnb shares also fell 13.4% after disappointing second-quarter financial results and warning that demand from U.S. customers was slowing.
Shopify shares gained 17.8 percent after the company reported better-than-expected profits.
With these developments, the Dow Jones index fell by 0.60 percent, the S&P 500 index fell by 0.77 percent, and the Nasdaq index fell by 1.03 percent. Index futures contracts in the US also started the day with a mixed trend.
POSITIVE TREND IN ASIA
European stock markets followed a positive trend yesterday.
While the statements of the European Central Bank (ECB) officials are being followed in Europe, ECB Member Olli Rehn said in a statement yesterday that the bank may continue to reduce interest rates if confidence in the slowdown of the inflation trend strengthens.
Following these developments, pricing in money markets predicts that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates with an 85 percent probability next month.
With these developments, the FTSE 100 index in the UK increased by 1.75 percent, the DAX 40 index in Germany increased by 1.50 percent, the CAC 40 index in France increased by 1.91 percent and the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy increased by 2.33 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe started the day with a mixed trend.
MIXED COURSE IN ASIA
Asian stock markets are also following a mixed trend.
The selling pressure in global markets, which was affected by the statements of Bank of Japan (BOJ) Vice President Shinichi Uchida that reassured the markets yesterday, started to be felt in Asian markets again.
On the other hand, according to the minutes of the meeting published by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), some members of the bank suggested a further increase in the policy rate. The minutes stated that assuming the price stability target will be achieved in the second half of fiscal 2025, the bank should raise the policy rate to the neutral interest rate level by that date.
The dollar/yen parity is at 146.1 levels, decreasing by 0.4 percent.
With these developments, the Nikkei 225 index lost 0.3 percent and the Kospi index in South Korea lost 0.8 percent near the close, while the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong gained 0.7 percent and the Shanghai Composite Index in China gained 0.1 percent.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul, which was mostly buying in the country yesterday, completed the day with a 1.45 percent increase in value compared to the previous close at 10,024.31 points.
USD/TL, which closed at 33.46182 with a 0.4 percent decrease yesterday, is being traded at 33.5240 with a 0.2 percent increase at the opening of the interbank market today.
Analysts stated that the real return rate of financial investment instruments, the 3rd Inflation Report of the year to be announced by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey and weekly money and banking statistics will be followed in the country today, and the weekly unemployment benefit applications and wholesale goods stocks in the USA will be followed abroad, and stated that from a technical perspective, 10,100 and 10,200 points are resistance in the BIST 100 index, while 9,800 and 9,750 points are support.
At the 2nd Inflation Report meeting of the year, the CBRT updated the 2024 year-end inflation forecast by 2 points to 38 percent, while maintaining the 2025 and 2026 forecasts at 14 percent and 9 percent, respectively.