Has the Ukrainian invasion of Kursk mixed up the Russian military cards?

Moscow- Evacuations of civilians from border areas between Russia and Ukraine continue in parallel with the declaration of a federal state of emergency in Belgorod Oblast due to what its governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov, described as “difficult conditions.”

In light of this, Russian forces are fighting fierce battles with their Ukrainian counterparts on more than one front to prevent further advances and force them to retreat from the areas they recently took control of.

The Russian Defense Ministry announced on Thursday that it had used missiles, drones and air strikes to regain control of the town of Kropets in Kursk Oblast, which Ukrainian forces had previously seized as part of an “anti-terrorist operation” that included Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk, which border Ukraine.

Race against time

This constitutes a new episode in the effects of the surprise ground incursion launched by Kiev on August 6 in Kursk, 20 kilometers deep and about 40 kilometers wide, which is classified as the first foreign military incursion into Russian territory since the end of World War II.

Belgorod Oblast is located about 40 kilometers from the border with Ukraine, while Kursk is 150 kilometers from this border.

While Russian forces are racing against time to restore the situation to what it was before the recent Ukrainian incursion and regain control of the areas they lost, talk continues about the form of “Russian revenge” that may accompany the operations it is carrying out to stop the Ukrainian advance.

In addition, the fighting between the Russian and Ukrainian armies in Kursk has sparked discussions about whether the situation in the border area could cause a new wave of mobilization in Moscow.

Bloomberg News reported on the 13th of this month – citing sources close to the Kremlin and the Ministry of Defense – that mobilization in Russia may be announced at the end of this year. According to what the agency said, as quoted by one of its interlocutors, this will be presented to the public as a rotation of military personnel on the front lines.

Western fingerprints

In contrast, the Russian Telegram channel “War on Fake” called Bloomberg’s report “a lie and a narrative that serves Ukrainian propaganda.” It said that the Russian armed forces are being replenished with contract soldiers and that their number is sufficient.

This was confirmed by the head of the State Duma Defense Committee, Andrei Kartapolov, who denied the need for mobilization due to the situation in Kursk, adding that “there are enough fighters at the front.” His deputy, Alexei Zhuravlev, stated that “at a minimum, we need to prepare a mobilization reserve, not for war with Ukraine, but for confrontation with the West.”

According to military affairs analyst Yuri Knutov, the attack on Kursk was carried out in cooperation with Western parties and all this could not have happened without coordination and management with Western intelligence services and technologies.

In a comment to Al Jazeera Net, Knutov said that the Ukrainian incursion “will not pass without a tough response that the whole world must see.” The spokesman did not rule out that “Russian punishment” would affect the Ministry of Defense and the Intelligence Directorate in Ukraine, adding that there are many targets in Kiev “that it is possible and necessary to hit, and Moscow has long-range, high-precision weapons that will not miss.”

He also pointed out that senior Russian army generals operating in the “new regions of Russia” could become the next priority target for Ukrainian forces, in light of information that Ukrainian intelligence is monitoring their locations in order to launch strikes with the HIMARS missile system, which would harm not only the army, but also civilians.

He explained that these supposed operations come in the context of Kiev's rush to achieve successes that guarantee it more Western support on the eve of the presidential elections in the United States, and after several positions by Western officials questioned the usefulness of aid to Kiev.

nuclear danger

In turn, international affairs analyst Dmitry Kim pointed out the need to take rapid security steps to confront the risks of the Ukrainian attack, which poses a direct threat to the Kursk nuclear power plant, located less than 50 kilometers from the combat zones.

He told Al Jazeera Net that there is a real danger of strikes and provocations by the Ukrainian army against the station, and the matter is not limited to Kiev's attempt to achieve a media victory or merely temporarily transfer the battles to Russian territory.

Kim stressed that Ukrainian forces will never launch a major offensive in the direction of Belgorod or Kursk because they “fear” clashing with Russian forces in the border areas, as well as the Russian response.

He described the statements about the imminent attack on Kursk and Belgorod as pure propaganda, adding that Kiev would try to organize “sabotage attacks” – as is the case now – but would not have the strength to do more than that.

In his opinion, the Russian response will be by choosing the most valuable targets because it is “ridiculous to spend expensive missiles on some government offices, and from the point of view of military strategy, it is better to hit weapons depots, trains carrying equipment coming from the West and the train stations themselves.”